Outlook

Before the attack, GDP was expected to expand by around 3% in 2026 thanks to previous interest rate cuts, more expansionary fiscal policy in many large economies and progressive easing of trade-related uncertainties. In the baseline scenario of a limited escalation of the attack, this drag is expected to be mild: less than 0.2 p.p. in the US, an energy self‑sufficient economy, 0.2–0.3 p.p. in the Euro area, and slightly more in Asia. The base scenario is based on the assumption that both the US and China have a vested interest in keeping the conflict contained: China depends on fossil energy imports from the region, while the US is approaching mid-term elections focused on the affordability crisis. Faced with a stagflationary shock, central banks may accept a rise in inflation, if oil prices spike only briefly. Still, this may reduce the room for the Fed to cut rates further. The potential impact on Euro area consumer prices may not be negligible. At the beginning of March it appears rather unlikely that the ECB would raise rates, but a long-lasting spike in energy prices would threaten that view, given the risks of second-round inflation effects. All in all, the evolution of the attack remains subject to high uncertainties, and a prolonged escalation would pose a risk of stagflation.

In this context, with the strategic plan Lifetime Partner 27: Driving Excellence, Generali is focused on executing according to its three strategic priorities, excellence in customer relationships, excellence in core capabilities and excellence in the Group’s operating model and based on its three foundations, People, AI and Data and Sustainability. The Group is deepening its Lifetime Partner relationships with seamless, personalised omni‑channel experiences, while accelerating growth in preferred profit pools, increasing technical proficiency and scaling AI and Group-wide assets.

In Life, capitalising on Generali’s broad customer base and strong distribution footprint, Generali’s focus remains on improving technical proficiency and on simplification, offering updated and integrated solutions to adapt to evolving customer needs throughout their lifetime. The main areas of focus include protection and health products, as well as capital-light savings solutions, with the goal of becoming the health partner of choice for each customer. The Group’s hybrid and unit-linked offers continue to be a priority to address growing customer needs for financial security with the objective to become the go-to partner for retirement and savings.

In P&C, the Group's objective is to maximise profitable growth - with a focus on non-motor lines - across the insurance markets where it operates, strengthening its position and offering, especially in countries with high growth potential. The Group confirms and reinforces its flexible approach to tariff adjustments, also considering a general increase in extreme natural events. The non-motor offer will continue to be enhanced through the addition of modular solutions designed to address specific customer needs. Generali will continue to increase its focus on developing insurance solutions related to the environment and climate change. As part of this, Generali has established the Group Climate Hub, which plays a key role in defining methodologies and approaches to understand and manage physical risks.

With reference to investment policy, the Group will continue to pursue an asset allocation strategy aimed at ensuring consistency with policyholder liabilities and improving risk-adjusted returns with a focus on increasing current income. Investments in private and real assets will continue to be pursued gradually to enhance portfolio diversification and capture opportunities, with a prudent approach that takes into account the lower liquidity and higher complexity of these instruments. In real estate, the Group will pursue a policy of geographical and sectorial diversification, closely monitoring and evaluating market opportunities and asset quality.

In Asset & Wealth Management, Generali will continue to expand its product offering, particularly in real and private assets, and enhance distribution channels while also benefitting from the investment capabilities obtained through the acquisition of MGG Investment Group. In Wealth Management, also thanks to the recent acquisition of Intermonte and the launch of Insurbanking, Banca Generali group will focus on enhancing its future growth path and maintaining robust shareholder remuneration.

Through the Lifetime Partner 27: Driving Excellence plan the Group is committed to delivering its ambitious 2025-2027 targets:

• strong earnings per share growth: 8-10% EPS CAGR²;
• solid cash generation: > € 11 billion cumulative Net Holding Cash Flow³;
• Increasing dividend per share⁴: >10% DPS CAGR⁵,with ratchet policy

underpinned by a clear capital management framework, with increased focus on shareholder returns:

• over € 7 billion cumulative dividends⁶ (2025-2027);
• a commitment to a minimum annual € 500 million share buyback, to be assessed at the beginning of each year of the plan (for a total commitment of at least € 1.5 billion⁵ over the plan), with a € 500 million share buyback executed in 2025 and a further € 500 million to be launched in 2026⁵.